Resilience and Future Climate Data for Modeling and Design
Authors
- Liz Kutschke, Richard Graves, and Patrick Cipriano, Center for Sustainable Building
Research - Stefan Liess, Heidi Roop, Amanda Farris, Dena Coffman, University of Minnesota Climate
Adaptation Partnership
Abstract
Despite daily reports of record-breaking heat, rainfall, and storm events, the current environmental design process relies on weather files that can be more than thirty years old and are created to represent historic median weather conditions for a given location. In the face of a changing climate, past weather data alone are insufficient for the buildings being designed now to be standing for the next 50 to 100 years. This paper will describe a methodology for creating and using future climate weather files for architecture and engineering modeling and decision making, developed by a team of climate scientists and design and engineering professionals. These future weather files will be based on historical medians from a meteorological perspective and incorporate fine-scaled regional climate projections for use at the local level. Additionally,
preliminary results from an energy and carbon modeling study of various building typologies will reveal the potential impacts of future climate on code-baseline and high-performing buildings. The process for integrating this analysis into the design process will become part of Minnesota’s B3 Guidelines, a comprehensive sustainable and resilient design program required for state-funded design and construction projects. The paper will also propose considerations for rain and stormwater management modeling based on consideration of future weather files. The methodology and results described can serve as a model for similar work around the country to build capacity for future-climate informed design and increase the resilience of buildings and
communities.
preliminary results from an energy and carbon modeling study of various building typologies will reveal the potential impacts of future climate on code-baseline and high-performing buildings. The process for integrating this analysis into the design process will become part of Minnesota’s B3 Guidelines, a comprehensive sustainable and resilient design program required for state-funded design and construction projects. The paper will also propose considerations for rain and stormwater management modeling based on consideration of future weather files. The methodology and results described can serve as a model for similar work around the country to build capacity for future-climate informed design and increase the resilience of buildings and
communities.
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