Future Weather Trends + Infrastructure

Executive Summary

Climate data and observations show that Minnesota is experiencing consistent changes in weather patterns. Between 1895 and 2023, the average annual temperature has increased by 3°F and average precipitation has increased by 3.3 inches. These changes are challenging aging infrastructure and, in some cases, causing infrastructure failures. When climatic changes are modeled for the end of the century, a range of possible scenarios are considered and presented (Chapter 2). Future climate average temperatures will be hotter and be accompanied by higher humidity, and with greater variability from season to season. Shifts in the timing and intensity of rainfall are expected to disrupt transportation along major rivers and increase chronic flooding. Green infrastructure as well as public and private investments may mitigate losses, provide relief from heat, and offer other ways to adapt the built environment to a changing climate.

Infrastructure is defined in this report as the technology that the state uses to support society with materials, resources and other aspects of ecological systems to facilitate the economy and other needs of society (Chapter 1). This report explores “how projections of future weather trends may exacerbate conditions, including but not limited to drought, elevated temperatures and flooding for the design and evaluation of infrastructure and buildings constructed by the state of Minnesota and local governments. In addition, the report assesses the potential of future weather events to weaken existing systems creating the need for intervention to:

• Maintain and increase the amount and quality of food and wood production
• Reduce fire risk on forested land
• Maintain and enhance water quality
• Maintain and enhance natural habitats

Building research based on modeling indicates that annual energy usage will decrease for
buildings constructed by the state and local government units (Chapter 5). While reduced need
for heating will decrease overall energy usage and natural gas use, demand for cooling will
significantly increase for new and existing buildings which will significantly increase the usage of
electricity. Increased temperatures combined with inadequate building insulation, windows and
other items will create internal temperatures that are uncomfortable and for some buildings,
unsafe.

Research supports recommendations for:

• Additional insulation in building envelopes
• Mechanical systems that can operate through wider variations of conditions
• Exterior finish materials and roofs that can resist stronger wind
• Building sites that can reduce the risk of increased flooding and drought

Because the relationships between infrastructure, future weather trends and the human-natural systems of agriculture, water, forests, and built environments are complicated, the research team developed a framework to analyze the Social, Ecological and Technological (SETs) relationships within each system, creating a common “language” to analyze potential interactions between multiple complex systems (Chapters 3 and 4). This approach is crucial for decision makers to be effective at mitigating costs and avoiding maladaptation or making things worse from some resilience strategies. Additional research is needed in this area, which would
yield significant returns on investment as the state determines goals and collaborative approaches responding to the challenges of complex weather risks and opportunities in the future.